Pentagon's attrocity casino is an interesting idea. Test the oracle affect. Does a large number of people know more than it thinks?

"Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient, effective and timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information," it said in a statement."

It's at Future Map

Questions

I'd be interested in seeing the blogosphere's reaction. For example, a Technorati style search might be able to agregate opinions and make better predictions.

What about market irrationalities such as booms and busts. Won't we see a lot of me-too followers?

What if people start hiring gangsters to make terrorist events happen?